The agency also forecast that nominal GDP will rebound to $324.5 billion by the end of 2025, after slipping to $306.9 billion in 2024, compared to $331.6 billion in 2023.
Fitch Solutions has projected that Egypt’s nominal GDP will reach $395.5 billion in 2026, rising steadily to $434.4 billion in 2027, $476.5 billion in 2028, and $522.9 billion in 2029, before continuing its upward trajectory to $829.2 billion by 2034.
The agency also forecast that nominal GDP will rebound to $324.5 billion by the end of 2025, after slipping to $306.9 billion in 2024, compared to $331.6 billion in 2023.
On the real growth front, Egypt’s economy is expected to recover, posting 4.1% growth in 2025 after slowing to 2.4% in 2024, down from 3.8% in 2023. Growth is projected to accelerate further to 4.7% in 2026.
Over the long term, Fitch anticipates that Egypt will maintain an average growth rate of 4.3% to 5% annually between 2027 and 2034, reflecting relative economic stability supported by an improved investment climate and stronger domestic consumption.
Fitch also expects Egypt’s fiscal deficit to decline from about 7.1% of GDP in FY 2024/2025 to 6.6% in FY 2025/2026, and further to 6.1% in FY 2026/2027—well below the historical average of 10% and the more recent 7%.
This outlook is underpinned by strong growth in government revenues, averaging 14.5% over the next two years, driven by tax reforms, stronger economic activity, and privatization initiatives.
Meanwhile, expenditure pressures are expected to ease as oil prices decline, subsidy reforms progress, and interest payments gradually fall—although debt servicing costs remain a key structural vulnerability.
According to the report, Egypt’s fiscal risks are balanced. On one hand, major investment deals or a sharper drop in debt servicing costs could improve the outlook.
On the other, persistently high interest rates or weaker-than-expected revenue performance could widen the deficit and push public debt higher.
